History of the AQB Ratings System

The AQB Ratings System has undergone many revisions, and is still evolving. It began as the Oracle League Ratings System - a hand-calculated measure of the ratings of online players of the computer game Heroes of Might and Magic II. The ratings system applied was similar to that used by the Canadian Chess Association for rating chess players, but with several modifications. The ratings function was a linear function of the ratings differential between the two opponents.

When the Oracle League folded early in 1998, the system was modified (to include home advantage) and applied to cricket teams - producing first the International Cricket (Test) Ratings and shortly afterwards the International Cricket (ODI) Ratings. These ratings were first posted to this website in June 1998.

Shortly after this Excel spreadsheets were set up to automatically calculate the ratings. This was essentially an automation of the hand-calculating process that removed many calculation errors. After long periods of data collection, the International Rugby Ratings were added in September 1999, the International Soccer Ratings in September 2001, and the Rugby Super 12 Ratings in February 2002.

Most recently, the NFL Ratings were added in December 2003. Plans for future ratings include European club football and international basketball.

Unfortunately, the larger results databases required a large number of interlinked Excel spreadsheets to calculate the ratings. This was not only slow, but unwieldy, especially when adjustments had to be made to correct past results. Finally in mid-2002, the ratings system was encoded in Visual Basic, which has streamlined the whole ratings process.

This allowed for easy scenario analysis, which meant that the ratings system parameters could be reassessed. The system was overhauled in May 2002, with adjustments to the home advantage variable, and the difference weighting.

The ratings began to be posted to rec.sport.* newsgroups in July 2000 and this continues to be the main forum for discussion on the ratings. These newsgroups can be accessed with any newsgroup software, or through Google groups (rec.sport.cricket, rec.sport.rugby.union, and rec.sport.soccer).

In the future, the ratings may be changed to automatically adjust parameters to result in the 'best' time-weighted accuracy of results prediction.

These pages and the AQB Ratings System are copyright Michael Cameron. All Rights Reserved. The ratings may be reproduced without permission provided they are stated as AQB Ratings and a reference to this website is made. Any enquiries may be made by e-mail to aqb@image.co.nz